China's One-Child Policy

Excellent article today from Matthews Asia on the PRC's liberalization of the 1980 One-Child Policy and the general state of population growth in an increasing urbanized China.

"Last November, China’s Communist Party announced that the one-child policy would be relaxed by implementation of a policy in which families are permitted to have two children if either a husband or a wife is an only child. This marks a change from the previous rules which required both the husband and wife to be only children in order to qualify to have a second child.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, ending the one-child policy is unlikely to change the longer-term trend toward a lower fertility rate, as the pressures of modern life lead Chinese couples to have smaller families."

Happy New Year!

Chinese New Year on January 23 ushers in the Year of the Dragon.   From my trips to the fortune tellers I know my lucky element is Wood, so (I think) I am in good shape for the coming Black Water Dragon.  Sort out your own situation with a personal fortune telling for the New Year.

If you want to skip the stars and get straight to the Nian Gao and other goodies, the annual celebration at the Chinese Cultural Center in Chanblee, Georgia is the place to be (January 21-22).  The claustrophobic vibe in the tiny auditorium is part of the experience.  

Expect to hold your kids on your shoulders for the non-stop performances of traditional dance, drumming and drama that make this event a must.  Work your way around the perimeter of the auditorium for snacks and use the back entrance for fresh air and a fast exit once you are stuffed.

Best wishes for a year of prosperity and happiness.

Fear and Loathing in Guangdong

Received this road report from homeboy and China Hand Gavin M. and had to share it:

 

Since I am not a blogger, I couldn't put this on any "blog site".  But it has been such a day in my China travels, I thought I should document it.  Please see below for a good laugh...

Day started at 3:30AM...I was awoken by several drunken Chinese men yelling at the top of their lungs and fighting in the hallway just outside my door.  Couldn't get back to sleep so I climbed on-line to check e-mails...found out that my factory that is producing my Lowes orders has significant quality issues.  (QC from Lowes came in and tested failures at a rate of 35%). My factory includes at the end of the e-mail not to worry as the issue should be "no problem" to fix.  (ie in China speak, that means BIG PROBLEM)

So from there I decided to take a shower...cold water only as hot doesn't seem to be working at 4:30AM..

Got down stairs by 5:45 AM and checked out. The factory car from yesterday's factory visit is now taking my friend Edmond and I to the airport at about 150 mph. The driver, Arctic Chen, driving like a drunk NASCAR driver through Shanghai traffic. The driver said he picked "Arctic" for his english name because he thought it was cool.  (He told me this yesterday with a straight face.)

We made it to the airport and crammed into the coach section (Chinese airline coach seats are built for people 5'6" and under) of an over booked flight to Hong Kong.  Breakfast was served on the plane....noodles, fish and some kind of weird vegetable.  The Chinese man next to me kept falling asleep and resting his head on my shoulder...while the guy behind me seemed intent on coughing up a lung.

2.5 hours later we landed in dense smog into Hong Kong airport...couldn't see a mile and it smelled like burned trash.

We transferred to a high speed ferry for a one hour trip to the city of Zuhai, a "small city" of around 5 million located across the border from Macau...the "Vegas of China".  Smog so thick it was like smoking a cigarette.

Got picked up in van and driven recklessly and at high speed for another 45 minutes to our hotel.  Checked-in and dropped my bags in the room.  Room smelled as musty as a Florida basement after a hurricane.  Quickly left the hotel (It is now 2PM) and drive another 1 hour at recklessly high speed to a meeting at the largest garden tool manufacturing factory in the world (5000 employees).  Today it is closed except for the owner and his brother are there to meet with us.  Discussions begin over a 750 ml bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue Label.  It's 3:30, cocktail hour.  Meeting goes until approximately 7:30 when the owner announces he needs to fly to his other factory about 400 miles away and staggers out the door.  I am wisked out the door and driven drunkenly by the brother to a sushi restaurant in a small town about 15 minutes away.  On the way there, it is misting and the roads are wet....I witness a motorcycle driven at high speed skid out and the driver land face first into the side of a mini van... he seemed OK but talk about concussion!!!!.... Fortunately, it wasn't the mini van I was in.  It was definitely a YouTube moment...except YouTube is not allowed in China, nor is Facebook... (Factoid)

Get to restaurant....it's sushi and there are cats at the front entrance....not a good sign  It's now 8:30.  Beer is served and so is a great big selection of raw items.  I eat some, but mostly stay with the beer and some Korean Kim Chi on the table.... The tuna looks a little old (and dark and smelly) and the other offerings seem a little warm...for me, this is another "not a good sign".

Finally say good nite to our host, after way too much beer, at about 10:30-10:45. We are driven at high speed and recklessly back to our hotel by a factory "driver"...another hour on the road.

There is a wedding going on at the hotel when we arrive back and there are many drunk Chinese people milling around talking loud.  I make it through the lobby and up to my room, but not without forgetting which floor I am on as this is the third hotel in four nites and it is all blending together (I actually stop at three floors before finding mine.)  Get to my room, and to my surprise, my key doesn't work...It must have been the workmen fixing the lighting on the floor when I checked in earlier (It was dark and I couldn't really see much as there were no lites on or windows in the hallway.)...maybe they triggered the electronic door mechanism.  Anyway, back downstairs, get a new key, work my way past the actual wedding party (They are very drunk) and back up to my room.  

I am now back in my room safe and sound.  The only english speaking channels on TV are Discovery and HBO.  HBO is showing some movie that went directly to DVD in the States 10 years ago and Discovery is a totally broken up digital image with no sound.  

I just looked at my watch and realized its been about 21 hour day....

Good nite now!

A View of China's Continuing Corruption Problems

China as the World

Cool comparison of Chinese provinces to whole countries.  Click here to see the entire image on Economist.com.

Setting the Stage for Hu Jintao Visit

Here is a great three minute video from the Wall Street Journal Online setting the stage for today's state visit for China President Hu Jintao. 

The Final Word on Tiger Moms

By now you have probably had enough of the Tiger Mom uproar, but I could not let the week end with out sharing this video from NMA in Taiwan (TMZ has nothing on these folks).

Brzezinski on China

Happy New Year!

Zbigniew Brzezinski has a must read Op-ed in today's New York Times addressing the state of U.S./China relations ahead of Hu Jintao's January 19 trip to the U.S.  In the article Brzezinski observes:

Thirty years after their collaborative relationship started, the United States and China should not flinch from a forthright discussion of their differences — but they should undertake it with the knowledge that each needs the other. A failure to consolidate and widen their cooperation would damage not just both nations but the world as a whole. Neither side should delude itself that it can avoid the harm caused by an increased mutual antagonism; both should understand that a crisis in one country can hurt the other.

Veil Lifted on China's Next Top Duo - WSJ.com

BEIJING—Leaked U.S. diplomatic cables are shedding rare light on the personalities and opinions of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang—the men tipped as China's next president and premier, respectively—while also revealing a surprising level of openness in their past dealings with the U.S. Embassy.

Veil Lifted on China's Next Top Duo - WSJ.com

By JEREMY PAGE

An Eye on Yeonpyeong

Heading into the holiday weekend with a close eye on the events in Korea via The Economist and New York Times.  When does China get serious about dealing with North Korea?

China at the Center of it All

Check out this great article on the rise of China from Friday's WSJ.
http://on.wsj.com/bsHyEf

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China Goes Shopping

Switch gears from all of the negative G-20 Summit coverage and check out the feature China Buys up the World  in the latest edition of The Economist.  

The articles reinforce the sway China and her cash enjoy around the world, but also highlight the realities of the PRC's state capitalism model and the rubber stamping culture at the executive ranks of many major companies.  Just don't accept this as status quo: 

Most of the executives interviewed by The Economist also felt that the next generation of Chinese executives, in their 30s and 40s today, with more international education and experience, would prove far more effective than the present cohort of chiefs. Over the past two decades the old guard has taken a rusting industrial base and from it made gleaming corporate giants. Yet if those firms are to achieve their full potential abroad their creators may have to relax their grip.

Backtrackin' with Deng Xiaoping

A quick refresh on the precepts of Chinese State Capitalism for anyone really taken aback by China's interest rate move today:

Economic planning is not tantamount to socialism, because economic planning is also practiced in capitalist countries

The market economy is not tantamount to capitalism, because a socialist country can also have a market economy.

Both economic planning and the market economy are economic means.

The essence of socialism is to emancipate and develop the productive forces, destroy exploitation, eliminate polarization, and attain common prosperity in the end.

Deng Xiaoping, 1987

Liu Xiaobo and The Prize

The calculus of China politics being what it is, the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to imprisoned dissident Liu Xiaobo is most likely a set back for reformists within the PRC.  Look for lots of spicy reaction from China over the weekend. 

China's willingness to allow the RMB to appreciated 2% this year, regardless of U.S. election-year rhetoric to the contrary, is impressive, if not pragmatic.  Power in China is political, not macroeconomic.  State Capitalism has driven China to explosive growth over the past thirty years, but I am not sure how personal liberty fits into the balance.

Taiwanese Shaved Ice Hits Inman Park!

During my time in Taiwan, my sweet tooth quickly drew me to Baobing, the Taiwanese take on a snow cone. The versions I enjoyed in the Taipei night market were usually scrapped ice smothered with red beans or fruity syrups.

Sno-Flake, just opened in Inman Park (on Highland Avenue across from the Mead Development), offers a modern take on Taiwanese shaved ice.  Check their technique for molding flavors into ice blocks before spinning the blocks on custom built electric scrappers.  The results are delicious!

Pay a visit after your next power meal at Sotto Sotto for a healthy alternative to that chocolate soup!




Here is video of the more traditional version from Gem, my favorite all time video blogger.

The Best Coverage of Asia Gets Even Better

Matthews Asia, the San Francisco-based mutual fund company, has long been my favorite resource for on-the-ground insights on Asian economic matters. The Matthews team recently completed a massive overhaul of their website, making their voluminous collection of free market data even more accessible.

Check it out for yourself! Opportunities abound in China, India and Southeast Asia, just know the game you are playing.

The Latest on China Labor

This week's Economist has a must read article on the new era of labor in China. While labor in China remains incredibly cheap, only about $0.81 an hour, new standards for workers' compensation and other inputs are raising real factory wage costs in major cities to levels on par with Thailand and the Philippines.

From Economist.com

A key takeaway is that the China game is growing up, not going away. The Pearl River Delta may be too rich for more and more manufacturers, but the interior and frontier areas of China, the origins of the huge supply of migrant labor that fuels coastal factories, are open for business.